EK Business Tendency Survey: Recovery modest towards the end of the year – moderate growth expectations for the coming months​ 

According to the Business Tendency Survey carried out in January by the Confederation of Finnish Industries (EK), there were no major changes in business conditions for Finnish companies towards the end of last year. Some recovery from the cyclical trough has taken place mainly in manufacturing, but the current situation in all main sectors remains weaker than average. 

The outlook for the coming months is cautiously positive. In manufacturing, business conditions are expected to recover gradually, and the outlook in services has also edged slightly into positive territory. In construction, however, the business situation is forecast to remain very weak during the first half of the year. Moderate growth in output is expected to continue in manufacturing, while the slow growth in sales in services is forecast to pick up slightly. The number of employees in manufacturing is expected to increase, whereas expectations in other sectors remain more subdued.  

“According to the Business Tendency Survey, the recovery was modest towards the end of last year. In several respects, the slightly more positive estimates seen in the previous survey did not materialise. Looking ahead to the early part of this year, however, Finnish companies are encouragingly forecasting that output growth will continue and even accelerate,” says Penna Urrila, Director, Chief Economist at EK. 

Despite expectations of growth in output, companies are not yet anticipating a strong turnaround. Downward pressure on profitability has eased somewhat, but profitability is still expected to weaken slightly in services and construction. Although initial signs of strengthening demand have already been seen, more than half of all respondents still report that their operations are constrained by weak demand. At the same time, nearly one in ten respondents report experiencing a shortage of labour.  

“The global political situation and the future of transatlantic relations are currently highly uncertain, which also creates risks for the economy and weakens the investment climate. From the perspective of Finnish companies, there are nevertheless positive factors as well – the conditions for a recovery in domestic demand are steadily improving, the potential for green investments is significant, and growth is gradually picking up in key European export markets,” Urrila adds. 

EK Business Tendency Survey 

The Business Tendency Survey is published four times a year by the Confederation of Finnish Industries (EK). The survey has been carried out regularly since 1966. It is part of the European Commission’s Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, which is partially funded by the EU. The survey concerns activity in Finland. In January 2026, EK asked companies to evaluate their business outlook for the fourth quarter of 2025 and expectations for the coming months. A total of 1,190 companies employing around 279,000 people in Finland responded to the survey.