EK Business Tendency Survey: The early summer outlook remained subdued – expectations of growth in manufacturing

According to the July Business Tendency Survey of the Confederation of Finnish Industries (EK), the business cycle for Finnish companies was generally weak in the early summer. The development was in line with the cautious expectations expressed in the previous survey. Assessments of the current situation are below average in all the main sectors. Growth was seen only in private services in the early summer, while the number of personnel continued to decline broadly.

The outlook for the rest of the year has improved slightly, particularly in manufacturing. A strong cyclical turnaround is not expected, but production is projected to shift clearly towards growth, and slow growth in services is expected to continue. The number of personnel in manufacturing and services is no longer expected to decline.

“The long-awaited recovery in business conditions appears to be sluggish, and the overall situation for Finnish companies remained weak throughout the early summer. The expectations of growth that have emerged in manufacturing for the rest of the year are encouraging, but the starting point for much of business and industry is very modest,” says Penna Urrila, Director, Chief Economist at EK.

Growth in manufacturing is overshadowed by companies’ reports that their competitive position has weakened, particularly in exports outside the EU. The situation in construction has remained by far the most challenging among the main sectors, and expectations for the remainder of the year are notably modest. More than half of all Finnish companies consider weak demand to be a limiting factor, which is a remarkably high figure. At the same time, around one in ten respondents report experiencing a labour shortage.

“The global economic outlook remains particularly uncertain, as trade policy disputes have not been resolved and uncertainty continues to surround the development of the investment environment. However, the falling interest rates in the euro area and consumers’ gradually increasing purchasing power are contributing to the development of the Finnish economy,” Urrila adds.

EK Business Tendency Survey

The Business Tendency Survey is published four times a year by the Confederation of Finnish Industries (EK). The survey has been carried out regularly since 1966. It is part of the European Commission’s Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, which is partially funded by the EU. The survey concerns activity in Finland. In July 2025, the