EK Business Tendency Survey: Business conditions have recovered somewhat – global risks weigh on the outlook

According to the Business Tendency Survey carried out in April by the Confederation of Finnish Industries (EK), business conditions in the Finnish economy strengthened somewhat in the early part of the year, although the situation in many sectors remains weak. The strongest improvement was seen in manufacturing, where output increased broadly and employment also rose slightly. In services, and particularly in construction, the overall picture remains clearly weaker.

The outlook for the coming months has become more subdued again. The business outlook in all main sectors is close to zero, and no major changes are expected. Output is nevertheless expected to continue to grow fairly widely in manufacturing. In services, the moderate upturn is expected to continue, and now output in construction could also increase slightly. Employment is expected to rise only in manufacturing in the coming months, while in other main sectors the decline is expected to ease.

“Given the circumstances, the Business Tendency Survey nevertheless presents a cautiously positive picture, as companies expect moderate growth to continue. In manufacturing in particular, business conditions have already been improving for several consecutive quarters,” says Penna Urrila, Director, Chief Economist at EK.

Despite expectations of growth, companies view the near-term outlook as uncertain. Costs are rising strongly, and profitability is not expected to strengthen, even though sales prices are forecast to increase. Weak demand remains clearly the main constraint on growth, affecting more than half of all respondents. Only in manufacturing has demand strengthened more clearly. At the same time, nearly one in ten respondents report experiencing a shortage of labour, and in construction such shortages have become more common compared with the previous survey.

“The war in the Persian Gulf has rapidly altered the global economic landscape. The prices of oil, gas and many other commodities have risen sharply, and the expected acceleration in inflation has led to expectations of interest rate increases. There is considerable uncertainty about how the situation will develop, and the range of economic forecasts has widened. Finland’s favourable energy solutions will help to mitigate the impact of the war to some extent, but a rapid rise in interest rates would pose a clear risk to the expected recovery in the domestic market,” Urrila says.

EK Business Tendency Survey

The Business Tendency Survey is published four times a year by the Confederation of Finnish Industries (EK). The survey has been carried out regularly since 1966. It is part of the European Commission’s Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, which is partially funded by the EU. The survey concerns activity in Finland. In April 2026, EK asked companies to evaluate their business outlook for the first quarter of 2026 and expectations for the coming months. A total of 1,157 companies employing around 285,000 people in Finland responded to the survey.